Acting as "political entrepreneurs," rising right-wing Japanese populist parties in recent years have been fueling fears about issues that do not match the country's reality, according to an observation by a European expert in comparative politics.
Daniele Caramani, a professor at the University of Zurich, said it remains unclear whether such parties' gains in popularity and political ground will prove durable. But he said their views may be drawing attention amid generational change in Japan, with diminishing sensitivities over the country's past militarism.
While rhetoric centered on "national identity" and opposition to immigration echoes trends in Europe and the United States, the actual circumstances in Japan differ markedly from those regions, Caramani, an Italian scholar, said in a recent interview with Kyodo News in Tokyo.
His remarks came as the populist Sanseito party, known for its "Japanese First" slogan, expanded its presence in the Feb 8 House of Representatives election by winning 15 seats, up from the two it held previously and continuing the surge seen in the July 2025 House of Councillors poll.
Another small opposition group, the Conservative Party of Japan, which has criticized Japan's acceptance of foreign workers on visas as effectively opening the door to immigration, also drew attention when it won two seats in last year's upper house race, although it lost its sole lower house seat in this month's election.
But Caramani argued that while the language is familiar, there is "no real immigration" in Japan. "This shows that these parties are really political entrepreneurs. They create a 'reality,' but sometimes it's not there."
According to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development from 2024, foreign residents accounted for around 3 percent of Japan's population, a level far lower than in most other developed nations, where the share reaches 10 percent or more.
Still, reports of foreigners misusing public services or engaging in problematic behavior have attracted attention in Japan, with parties including Sanseito seeking to capitalize on the concerns, presenting themselves as taking a tough stance.
Caramani said it is difficult to predict whether Sanseito will be able to sustain its momentum but warned that international developments such as U.S. President Donald Trump's pressure on Greenland may prompt people to begin to view exclusionary nationalism as "dangerous."
"If you go 'your country first,' you might also get very isolated," Caramani said, questioning whether such ideas can maintain long-term public support in smaller nations that are in a vulnerable position in a "world of predators" where "might is right."
Caramani also said that nationalism, which has long been considered "taboo" in Japan due to its wartime history, may be resurfacing due to a generational change -- a development he says has parallels in Europe.
In the lower house election, the Liberal Democratic Party led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, known for her conservative political stance and hawkish security views, scored a historic landslide victory by winning more than a two-thirds majority.
Caramani is the winner of the internationally prestigious Stein Rokkan Prize for Comparative Social Science Research in 2004.
© KYODO
108 Comments
Sanjinosebleed
Yeh Japan is walking down a dark path on its current trajectory! Next they’ll be promoting sakoku…
Mickelicious
Arguably the poor provision of foreign language education achieved that a couple of generations ago. Hence Trumpian slop is swallowed nuance free.
Garthgoyle
It's ironic but they are using the same playbook Moon (South Korea) used against Japan. Need to get more popularity and distract? "Look at what the foreign nation of Japan did to us almost a century ago."
This party is using the same old trump card: always them (foreigners) never our fault. These guys are a total sham. And the sad part, people are dumb enough to fall for it.
Sanseito and similar groups are rage-click posts on social media. Nothing less, but sadly way more dangerous.
Mike Hunt
This guy is a politician clown. Hope he goes away soon!
kurisupisu
It’s easy to blame people without the ability to respond.Is this the way that some Japanese wish to follow?
Geeter Mckluskie
"European scholar"
virusrex
Beats by miles "anonymous online poster"
obladi
Sanseito's early materials and speeches included references to “international Jewish capital” controlling society. Their leader Sohei Kamiya, was also quoted as saying "Although women's participation in society is a good thing, only young women can have children." Maybe this kind of rhetoric can get a few votes, but it is far from the mainstream view.
Ricky Kaminski13
Whats this got to do with Sanseito? Why conflate the two?
Aly Rustom
Caramani said it is difficult to predict whether Sanseito will be able to sustain its momentum but warned that international developments such as U.S. President Donald Trump's pressure on Greenland may prompt people to begin to view exclusionary nationalism as "dangerous."
That's what I'm hoping- Also ICE in Minnesota should give the Japanese pause as to what parties like Sanseito can do to THEM if they gain more influence. Being Japanese isn't going to save them even if they are in Japan.
"If you go 'your country first,' you might also get very isolated," Caramani said, questioning whether such ideas can maintain long-term public support in smaller nations that are in a vulnerable position in a "world of predators" where "might is right."
Exactly. But that requires deep thinking and contemplation, which is something the vast majority of people here do not do.
Aly Rustom
Very dark path. And they don't know where this is going to lead. That's why its a dark path...
They kinda already did during the pandemic. They flirted with it. I think this could easily be the beginning of it.
Michael Machida
QUESTION: Based on this situation in Japan, how will Japanese travellers and Japanese living overseas be treated but the locals? News travels fast. Japan will be isolated and will shrink down to nothing because no talented internationals would want to live and work and contribute to the continued success of Japan. Your thoughts?
Michael Machida
CORRECTION: …by the locals
wallace
Populist parties run on fears. Foreigners, immigration. The Sanseito is an extreme right fringe party.
FizzBit
Probably a 2-5% following. Sanseito ='s corporate media looking for clicks. Media created story and controversy.
WoodyLee
""Acting as "political entrepreneurs," rising right-wing Japanese populist parties in recent years have been fueling fears about issues that do not match the country's reality, according to an observation by a European expert in comparative politics.""
Amen, right out of Trump and A.H. Playbook.
Geeter Mckluskie
According to Japan’s 2005 Population Census, the number of foreign residents usually living in Japan was about 1,555,505 people, making up approximately 1.22 % of the total population at that time.
currently, Japan has nearly 4 million foreign residents, which is the highest number ever recorded — around 3.9-4.0 million people in 2025
The foreign population almost doubled in two decades...not 5 decades, but 2. At this rate 20% of Japan's population will be foreign within 50 years.
That's 20 million foreigners...or to put in perspective...half the poplation of Canada, with a fraction of the land
WoodyLee
This DARK storm will pass like all other and the sun will shine again above the land of the rising sun hopefully soon.
Japan has made it thru tougher times and will pass this as well, as soon as inflation is under control, wages up, and the general public feels secure these RADICAL elements will just FADE AWAY and will be ignored or even laughed at. Until then just watch and laugh at them.
Andreas Setzer
Yes. First names show which culture parents think themselves to be a part of. Not adapting to the culture of ones host country shows ingratitude, hostility and a need to stay separate.Combine that with the insufferable entitlement that oozes from many posts here, and I completely understand why the Japanese are becoming leery.Japan has a right to keep their Japanese identity,the love for which was the reason for many in past times to come to Japan in the first place. It seems the new generation of expats see the country as just another playground that should turn into a copy of all the other drab soulless megacities in the world
kohakuebisu
The only way Japan gets to 20 million foreigner residents is that 20 million foreign residents are needed.
Its highly likely that other countries with 20 million foreign residents have them for the same reason, even if they are loathed to admit it.
virusrex
Which of course makes absolutely no sense, it is the same as looking how a baby increases his weight from 3 to 6kg in only 3 months, so it means it will weight 3 million kgs by the time he is 5 years old.
Pretending you can extrapolate rate of increase from a starting point that is minuscule makes absolutely no sense, lame AI agents may make this horrible logical mistaken, but any human with even a little common sense would recognize it as nonsensical immediately.
No, it shows what they want their children to be named.
You mean comments that make use of well known tricks to exaggerate a supposed immigration problem? That would have a very easy solution, yet people keep trying to mislead others with them.
Geeter Mckluskie
Sometimes it does...other times it doesn't
said the European scholar
Countered the anonymous online poster
Sven Asai
Of course the same errors like in all other countries will be repeated here. So it is necessary here too, that someone early names the problems to expect and forces the mainstream politics into corrections and tipping the brakes a little bit. The issues cannot be stopped, but hopefully can be limited and postponed. That is the value of such parties.
virusrex
Every single time, people with names and careers vs anonymous people making nonsensical comments based on hallucinations of AI? no contest ever.
So, it comes from a source that is at least minimally reliable.
Not being able to make a coherent argument, much less contradicting what an actual expert says.
Andreas Setzer
You call arguments "tricks" instead of arguing against them with facts. That is a highly deceptive trick in itself. The fact is that all over the West, in the US and western Europe, in every country that had large scale immigration now have parties that are in the 25to 50 percent range. This shows that a large part of the population is seeing mass immigration of people that do NOT want to adapt to host cultures, keep their languages,customs,naming practices, as a problem. And these people see with their own eyes that the public space,super markets, trains etc are filled with people that do not speak their language, are disrespectful, do not keep with the customs of the country.
Andreas Setzer
Every economist knows that labour demand is a function of price. Japanese combini stores or machi koubas has insatiable demand for labour, if they can get it for 500yen per hour.At the same time the population working in temp jobs hiseikoyou is nearing 40%. The US has the same problem with 36% in the Gig economy. The fundamental Problem of the West and Japan is an oversupply of labour through Globalization,depressing wages,destroys stable employment,with consequences for family formation, birth rates etc.
Geeter Mckluskie
Humans stop growing at around the age of 18.
The population of foreigners in Japan has doubled in 2 decades. If that trend continues...
virusrex
The fact is that when a name is given to the vast majority (if not all) of the children of a minority that means that it will be much more common than the wide variety of names given to the vast majority of the population. So even if it is only 3% of the population that would still mean 3% of the children would have that name, more than enough to make it the most popular.
This is a well known disinformation technique used to exaggerate the supposed importance of inmigration, instead of using actual demographics using a misleading number.
No, this shows a personal prejudice, not a fact.
Do they? how come you think you can speak for others? Plenty of nationals are also disrespectful, do not keep manners or customs and may barely speak the language. If people complain about them, would this become an argument to replace them with immigrants?
So you do think that children weight 3 million kilograms at 5? How much do you think humans weight at 18?
It will give a much lower number than what the AI agent mistakenly gave to you, again "The weight of a child doubled in only 3 months, if that trend continues..."
wallace
There are about 900,000 PR foreigners. 1.5 million Chinese, South Koreans, and Vietnamese. The other 1.5 million foreigners are here on temporary work visas, student visas, and cultural visas.
Foreigners now account for approximately 4% of Japan's total workforce.
Geeter Mckluskie
"there is "no real immigration" in Japan"
Foreign residents in Japan 2005: 1,555,505
Foreign residents in Japan 2025: 3,956,619
Not this time
virusrex
Still this time, repeating numbers without addressing the arguments why this do not represent real immigration only make it evident you don't have those arguments, so you are forced to repeat something that in no way support what you want to say.
The expert have a very strong point, you are being forced to repeat numbers and use projections that make absolutely no sense, It is very clear who is right here.
Geeter Mckluskie
In what fields?
Also, in what fields are job losses due to AI and automation most likely to occur?
virusrex
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20260130_13/
Reflecting acute labor shortages in some industries, the number of foreign workers in the medical and welfare sector rose by 25.6 percent from 2024, the largest increase among sectors. The figure grew by 17.1 percent in the accommodation, eating and drinking sector, followed by a 16.1 percent increase in the construction sector.
Not in construction, accommodation, medical and welfare. Occupations that require proficiency in many different tasks that AI does poorly outside of controlled environments (or have no role whatsoever).
Maybe language teaching, which is a much more simple job.
Andreas Setzer
The fact is that when a name is given to the vast majority (if not all) of the children of a minority that means that it will be much more common than the wide variety of names given to the vast majority of the population. So even if it is only 3% of the population that would still mean 3% of the children would have that name, more than enough to make it the most popular.
Every culture has its fads and names that are high frequency. And migration should INCREASE name diversity. In Egypt Syria, etc Mohammed is a frequent name,but not overwhelmingly so .The fact that ONE imported name that had close ZERO naming in the past is Number One ,clearly shows that there is a problem with unassimilated immigration. There are many more with names like Tarek,Ibrahim etc. You clearly try to obfuscate a problem , when it is clear to see and hear for everyone who walks through cities ,uses public transport etc
virusrex
Because you say so? are you trying to present yourself as an authority? Why would migration change something the parents consider extremely important? Should migration change the importance people give to access to medical services? I mean since you are arbitrarily making up facts about it.
Of course it is, why make up something false that is very easy to debunk? this shows you have no real arguments.
https://forebears.io/forenames/mohamed
Egypt 7% Number 1 in popularity
Syria 6% Number 1 in popularity
No, it does not, it shows that the name is extremely popular with a small minority, enough to make it the number one over names that are much more diversely distributed. This instead shows a prejudice so strong that you are trying to use a meaningless fact to exaggerate something.
Andreas Setzer
there is "no real immigration" in Japan"
Foreign residents in Japan 2005: 1,555,505
Foreign residents in Japan 2025: 3,956,619
And this development will not stop, as powerful interest groups like Industrial pressure groups will lobby for more cheap labor supply, lamenting that they can't find mechanics or nurses for 1000yen per hour. Japan has lost its technical edge in so many fields,combined with their sclerotic management style, that their only way to compete in more and more commoditized industries is by cheap labour, either imported, or natives impoverished by inflation and the weak yen
Geeter Mckluskie
"medical field" does that mean in elderly care homes or doctors, surgeons etc.
What is the forecast for jobs in the elderly care field? What tasks will be automated?
Geeter Mckluskie
The "argument" was that Japan has "no real immigration"
That's demonstrably false. As was "addressed." by quoting the more than double foreign population increase in two decades.
wallace
There are about 500,000 foreign tech interns.
virusrex
An expert opinion opposed by anonymous people on the internet that try to mislead others with well known tricks to exaggerate the importance of immigration? not a contest at all.
An excellent argument to criticize the stagnation and isolation of Japanese companies, a terrible one to argue that immigration is a problem.
It means medical field, a general field instead of a much more restricted category.
None that would allow replacement of workers, AI is barely able to do things with information (like language teaching) it is no where near to do (acceptably) even a significant part of the tasks anybody working in a medical field needs to do.
No, you like to claim it, repeatedly, but that is not demonstrating it as false.
A flawed argument that was easily disproved by providing another example how trying to extrapolate this would make a single human weight millions of kilograms.
Andreas Setzer
And immigration should INCREASE name diversity, because names from a plethora of countries and different cultures would be imported, From Juan to JeanPierre to Naomi to GuiLian.
CEOB55
Left wing Kyodo News is desperate. No one cares what a left wing “scholar” in Zurich, who won a prize 22 years ago thinks about Japan politics. My Yorkie, who was born and lives in Japan knows more about Japan than this so called scholar
151E
It’s reasonable that many Japanese don’t want to follow Sweden’s example, which saw an explosion in violent crime following a doubling of its foreign born population. Wanting to maximize the benefits of immigration while minimizing its costs (through a gradual, selective immigration policy) does not make one ignorant, racist or fascist.
Seizo
While a 3% foreign population seems small by Western standards, it represents a visible shift in a country that has historically maintained near-total homogeneity.
Applying a Western liberal framework often misses the nuance. In Japan, "populism" is not just about left vs. right; it is often about Inside vs. Outside - in a sense, a kind of isolation is what is desirable. Japan also has left-wing populist movements like Reiwa Shinsengumi, which focuses on "the people" against the "corporate elite" but has failed in recent elections. Yet, real or not, for a Sanseito supporter, fearing the dilution of a 2,000-year-old culture isn't necessarily "extremist"; it is a rational response to perceived extinction. The fringes and vulnerable of Japanese society are feeling the pain; the middle-class is shrinking. These people feel ignored by the mainstream parties. And give me example of when might wasn't right?
So, Sanseito is addressing a psychological reality in Japan—the anxiety of a shrinking, unique nation facing an inevitable globalized future. Yet, their use of historical tropes (like too many immigrants) is the sad testimony of people in fear looking for goats and easy solutions to deeper problems.
Andreas Setzer
Extremely insightful post, thank you. On the other hand, ALL economically successful countries, including China Korea Taiwan etc have entered demographic decline, in addition to the G7. Population pressure is mainly exerted by India, Islamic countries,Africa and Latam. Trump's tariff and migration walls are a poorly designed adhoc measure, but IMHO show the right way: stopping globalization and with it the flow of labour to wealthy countries, and jobs to poor countries, with the middle class and coherence in society getting pummeled.The question is, how fence off of those countries that are on a same level while keeping flows inside these intact
HopeSpringsEternal
Smart politicians always catch 'waves' and since 2022, the number of immigrants living in Japan has nearly doubled, increasing so fast of late, the Govt. no longer releases statistics and ditto the JN depopulation
JN's get it, the wage doom loop, real wages falling, because immigrants willing to work harder for less, as they're usually very young.
Japan's looking for leaders who do not want continued dystopian wage doom loop caused by immigration, causing fewer JNs able to afford kids, but rather leaders who want to rapidly modernize Japan into a high tech, wage, wealth creation and productivity powerhouse!
Geeter Mckluskie
Needed by whom is the question. Needed by resort hotels that would otherwise go the way of the Dodo due to no longer being necessary other than for a hotel owner (Australian in the case of Pal Cal Tsumagoi in Gunma where I went snowboarding over winter vacation...and was staffed entirely by Indonesian and Indian nationals...entirely...front desk, kitchen...entirely)...necessay for convenience stores...or factories that won't pay Japanese workers a living wage? Needed by politicians who offer no new services nor infrastructure...but increase their salaries and slush funds...and NPO gravy grifts?
Need needs to be far more closely analysed
virusrex
This makes absolutely no sense, you are trying to argue about an increase of diversity on this very specific minority, so it obviously will not matter how many other minorities are there, for this specific one there should not be any increase on diversity of names.
On the other hand, for a country immigration increase diversity, but since for a tiny minority this name is still extremely popular that increase in diversity for all other names ensures this particular name will still be the most popular. You are proving the opposite of what you claim.
Japan is nowhere near to Sweden in immigration, also overly reducing a very complex situation just to blame immigration itself (instead of how this happened and the many factors that have importance in Sweden) makes for a very weak argument.
https://www.scup.com/doi/full/10.1080/2578983X.2019.1688955
Results in this study showed a decreasing trend in self-reported offending among both first and second generation immigrant youth, and also among immigrant youths from different regions of origin. The results also show that offending has declined at a faster rate among first generation immigrants by comparison with native Swedes.
New technology represents a visible shift, decrease of food self sufficiency also, focus on tourism, changes on population demographics, corporate culture, etc. all represent visible shifts.
More like isolation that is presented as desirable by political actors that want to blame all problems in people outside instead of the actual people responsible for those problems.
But of course that does not deny the point that the party itself can be seen as extremists that try to manipulate the population to support them by repeating misleading or even plain false information.
What? no, that is completely false, the government have not stopped releasing information.
So it becomes clear that success in making billionaires more powerful and rich is no solution for the problems of a country, it is an excellent bad example not to follow.
grund
The issues is that Sansei seems to build their arguments largely on hearsay and what they feel to be true, and this is very different from reality.
Japan has indeed experienced an increased immigration in the last few years, but that this sould have caused increased crime, or that foreigners are treated better than Japanese people is not reality, but a blatant lie that Sansei uses to scare people and drum up support.
virusrex
Because economic activity is bad for a country? that makes no sense, it reflects a serious lack of knowledge about what is good or bad for a country.
Business are not necessary in the same way that public health services are not, some people would survive without them, but in general the situation would be much worse.
Not included in the jobs that showed an important increase of workers from overseas.
Specially by people that know about economy and public administration.
Andreas Setzer
Nobody cares what labels you stick on someone to try to shame their opinion. Do you really think people are influenced more by a party than their daily experience in companies where the unskilled workforce is mainly from Vietnam , Philippines, the technical staff from India, and management from all over the planet ? By their experience living in some crappy apartment or Leo palace with neighbors you can hear every evening, but not understand the language ? And seeing the influx of people strolling the streets ? This was my experience in Japan 3 years til 2025. It's an appalling decline and decay for Japan compared to the 90s when I lived in Japan for the first time, it's heartrending to see a country whose distinct culture one held dear erode and become a hodgepodge like the rest of the world.
itsonlyrocknroll
"Political entrepreneurs,"
I would suggest deliberate xenophobic racial fear mongering.
Sohei Kamiya, Sanseito Japan First 参政党, under the falsehood "Participate in Politics" Purpose, at present to is the tail attempting to wag an Liberal Democratic Party Sanae Takaichi to harbour discontent, to stir up prejudice towards foreigners, to make sure social exclusion, overt discrimination, for housing/employment, to force their removal, move forward an anti-foreigner sentiment/agenda.
At the same time, it is so important if you are a long-term resident here in Japan, you integrate with your local community where possible, understand the laws, the social etiquette, the language, the culture, you will be respected accepted just for making the effort
virusrex
Trying to shame sanseito? that is beyond achievable, when a political actor do and says as what is well known as extreme right that is justification enough to apply the term to it. Lying, exaggerating to make foreigners the evil that causes all and every problem in the country is a well known strategy of extreme right parties to manipulate people to support them
Of course, because they observe a consequence and the party tells them it is a cause, a cause that their support will allow them to expulse from the country and make everything rosy and perfect again.
Some people don't make the effort to properly analyze the situation and will take an easy (but fake) solution when it is presented to them. I mean people even took them seriously when they promised 10,000 per children monthly even when there is no way this could have been done.
Andreas Setzer
It's not easy NOT having prejudices against foreigners after reading through these posts. Most of them have zero respect for their host country and their sovereign decisions, bring their combativeness, entitlement and foreign attitudes to a country that is deeply hierarchical. respects the decision of the community, and tries to minimize nuisance/meiwaku. If the Japanese decide that we foreigners are causing more nuisance than they want to tolerate,I respect this, out of respect for their right to preserve their culture.Anybody not accepting this never cared about Japan anyway IMO and has no business being there
virusrex
Because of foreigners making use of well known misleading information to exaggerate the importance of immigration to the point of contradicting themselves? sure. It requires people to remember there are bad actors everywhere and that generalizing is not good.
Because of making arguments against manipulative declarations of extreme right parties? This would be a show of respect for the country, at least much more than just repeating those misleading claims as if they were true.
Lying to justify misleading the "community" to make bad decisions is not something that should be respected, on the contrary it should be denounced and condemned openly. Trying to present the invalid acceptance of fallacies and false arguments as respect makes absolutely no sense, respect would be to call things for what they are so nobody is mislead to make a wrong decision.
Raw Beer
I wonder what he thinks of the situation in his home country, or the one where he is based. I bet he wished they had a party like Sanseito.
Yeah, not yet, at least compared to the EU. But better deal with this early, waiting will only make it more difficult to fix.
virusrex
Seeing how he argues against the manipulation and lies that is of course not the case,
Which is precisely the point, presenting immigration now as a danger has no merit, and pretending this is a slippery slope that has to be stamped out or the country will be ruined is just exaggerating to manipulate people.
Geeter Mckluskie
It's not demonstrably false that the foreign population grew from 1.5 million to 3.9 million?
Really?
Jimizo
Around 4% of the population being foreign is a hodgepodge?
I think that’s a bit hysterical.
Andreas Setzer
They have the populist SVP which gets about a third of the vote. They pushed thorough the prohibition of minarets of mosques for example. As the country still has a strong economy ,tensions are not as high as in it's neighbor countries, where the economic crises exacerbate the problem of immigration mainly from Islamic countries, who are mostly not interested in assimilating, as shown by my thesis at the beginning of the thread
virusrex
It is false that this represents a problem or that this can be extrapolated to the future as if no factor would ever affect it, the same as humans always doubling their weight after 3 months.
How would this prove that the problems with right wing parties described in the article do not make them undesirable. Do you know the fallacy of appeal to populism?
raincloud
Sanseito is a fringe party, an extreme minority of fascist, racist nutcases. Japanese news outlets, including this one, need to stop giving them publicity and acting as if they were some sort of emerging majority.
Geeter Mckluskie
4% now...1.5% 2 decades ago...8% in another 2?....20% in another 5?
Sanseito proposed a cap at 5%. Are you in favour of that?
virusrex
Sanseito proposed using a 5th of the national annual expense to pay 10,000 yen for each children every month. Do you still think the government gets every yen that tourists spend in the country to make up for this?
Yotomaya
Sanseito are way more than a "fringe" party. They have attracted so much attention that they swayed the voter base further to the right. The society has pretty much no resistance to fascism, making the party a fairly big player in the arguably bleak path the country is taking.
Profiting of irrational fears of imaginary enemies has real-life consequences, mainly for people who can't do anything about it.
Andreas Setzer
Again this strange concept that silencing the media would stop the outburst of a volcano. This has not worked with Trump, nor with UK Reform, LePen AfD, Fratelli dItalia etc,,, There are much more powerful social and economic drivers behind this development, this cannot be kept under a rug.In fact the first populists in history, the Gracchi of the late roman republic show the template : mass empoverishment and destruction of the free farmer class and their descent to become proletarians, mass import of slaves used by big "corporations" to work the fields, birth rate collapses so that whole areas like Etruria became depopulated...
HopeSpringsEternal
Foreign births in 2024 in Japan were +6% and growing fast, while JN births falling steadily and trend continuing, only the Govt. is not releasing any data on 2025 births
JN births set to collapse in 2030s as birth age women are vanishing fast into middle age, foreigners have babies in Japan at TWICE the rate of JNs. Why?
Because for most foreigners, their wages are relatively great compared to the poorer countries they came from, like China, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc., while for JNs, real wages are steadily falling due to immigrant competition
Politicians get it, Wage Doom Loop is real, Japan needs to course correct, pursue a high wage advanced economy, not a mass immigrant dystopian failed state
Geeter Mckluskie
Sanseito proposed a cap on foreing residents at 5%.
Are you in favour of that?
virusrex
And since foreigners get nationality when they are born in Japan... oh wait.
Any actual source that provide evidence of this being the case?
The money and power that comes from manipulating people with misleading or false information? sure, that is why this is such a popular move for far-right parties. Decent people prefer truthful information.
Geeter Mckluskie
*foreign residents
virusrex
Sanseito proposed using a 5th of the national annual expense to pay 10,000 yen for each children every month. Do you still think the government gets every yen that tourists spend in the country to make up for this?
Again, how in favor are you about obvious lies from a party that frequently use them to mislead the public? are you still trying to use impossible things to justify those lies?
HopeSpringsEternal
Sanseito correctly does not want to see Japan's customs, culture, identity, etc. just wiped away by a flood of mass migration continuing unabated and thus wants to pivot Japan ASAP to high tech. prosperous economy, not even more wage doom loop mass migration
LDP and PM Takaichi agree, just they're not so 'open' and transparent, and prefer Sanseito take 'arrows' for their harsh rhetoric, but in private they FULLY concur
virusrex
But incorrectly it makes the claim this is a realistic possibility when anybody with even a minimum amount of knowledge about the topic calls this scenario unfounded.
The article is about this.
Concurring with a fake scenario made up to mislead and manipulate the public is not really something that adds any support for the claim, if anything it would put everybody in the same group "manipulators".
Geeter Mckluskie
Unwilling to answer the question?
virusrex
I gave enough clear arguments about why there is no point in pretending sanseito will honor any promises it makes.
Only naive people will think a party characterized by manipulation and lies will in any way make any proposal it makes not matter how rational or irrational it is (and specially not matter how irrelevant it is for the real situation of the country). People naive enough to believe the government gets all the money tourists spend in the country.
wallace
Saneito's policies are irrelevant since they are not in power and unlikely ever to be so.
Andreas Setzer
Yes, this would be the solution to Japans problems. There is only a tiny obstacle: Japan lost the leadership in semiconductors,electronics,robotics tech 20 years ago to Korea then Taiwan and China. These countries now have much more skilled workforces,capital, and smarter management, this gap is extremely hard to close. That's precisely why I expect Japans industry leaders cry out for even more cheap labor immigration: they know they cannot compete on innovation anymore, so price is the only way...
HopeSpringsEternal
Sanseito's policies are very relevant, they're just the tip of the 'spear', as the LDP and PM Takaichi largely agree with their viewpoints, that Japan needs to modernize, ASAP and not pursue more mass migration DOOM Loop
virusrex
You are still not making any argument, when sanseito focuses on things that are not a problem but a tool to manipulate people other parties "agreeing" make no difference, they are still not a problem and the only thing that changed is that the manipulators increased. No migration doom loop, that is still an imaginary problem.
Ricky Kaminski13
Have to be the one to play devils advocate here, because it’s painfully obvious people WANT to see fascism hidden under every stone, nook and cranny, but you’ll have to excuse me if some of us may not take being lectured about anti-immigration forces popping up all over the place from an Italian. No matter what his credentials. There is always smoke where there is fire and the immigration debate is one full of nuance, inconvenient realities, complexities and actual consequences. The professed values vs the lived values discrepancy.
Have warned before to our beloved expat community of debaters not to demonize Sanseito, let it play out organically and have a bit of faith in the good will of the Japanese people ( if you don’t, why are you here? ) and let’s try not make the same mistakes that have been made in our own countries. You will only make things worse by judging and apostatizing, and once again play right into their hands by doing so.
Real talk. Just had a chat with my Hungarian neighbor yesterday who goes to Italy to buy high quality marble for his business here in Australia and had just got back a few days ago. Lovely fellow. Himself a refugee and self made successful migrant. He is built like a brick s#%thouse and can clearly take care of himself, but he said wandering around many of the towns over there, especially at night it wasn’t safe, and it wasn’t the Italians he was concerned about. Much of Europe is the same and to pretend any otherwise is being either willingly blind or disingenuous.
So yeah, sorry Mr Italian expert, people will always look at life this way. How’s your country doing first before you lecture others about ours? Goes much the same with everyone that wants to claim to have superior ideas, beliefs or opinions. Pray tell, oh high and mighty one, what have you personally done in your life that would make us want to listen to you? The litmus test of individual worth is on display every single day in our real on the ground lives. Most people are awesome and feel little need to see fascism everywhere, until you go online.
HopeSpringsEternal
Where there's a will, there's a way, as tech markets rapidly growing, plenty of room for new Japanese entrants, the path to more JN births, greater national security, wealth and productivity = Advanced Economy
Geeter Mckluskie
You avoided the question with a "whataboutism"
Do you think Japan should cap its foreign population at 5%?
virusrex
Because nationality makes arguments more or lest valid?
So when people say that supporters of extreme-right wing policies may be racists in disguise, is there fire?
Sanseito do that by themselves without any problem, making obvious what it is doing is something valid and correct.
How does this in any way contradicts criticizing sanseito for what it does? would this in any way decrease the capacity of Japanese people to make good decisions? Do you think the national population come here to know what to do?
How so? if criticism can be supported by valid arguments and evidence then it makes no sense to think this would make things worse, for this to happen you would be the one that would not have any fait on the "good will" of the Japanese people that would react negatively.
This makes no sense, if the arguments make sense that is what is important. Imagine that one person from each country said exactly the same thing. Would the arguments become magically more or less correct depending on the country of the person repeating them? if that is the case this would be the problem.
No, not at all because that is not whataboutism means, I clearly said that the question has no merit, no relevance, no meaning because addresses a "solution" to something that is not a problem, from someone that has no credibility and that requires magical thinking as a requisite to be taken seriously.
HopeSpringsEternal
Sanseito only relevant because they have the 'ear' of the LDP and PM Takaichi. These parties largely in alignment on how to Save Japan from a mass immigration Doom Loop set to erase Japan demographically & culturally
Yotomaya
If you want to use the researcher's nationality as an argument (which it isn't), you could say that Italians have one or two things to say about fascism.
"Don't demonize the party that has been winning gains on xenophobia, misinformation and prejudice." But there is no need for "demonization". Pretty much just repeating their policy makes them sound unhinged.
Anecdotal experience, nothing to base policy on. Also, the argument that someone "doesn't feel safe" is not valid. A lot of Japanese people think that "foreigners" are scary just by existing. Their prejudice doesn't make us a threat.
Geeter Mckluskie
It was cited as a response to
My query is to discern at what % is it no longer "hysterical" for Japanese to feel like their population is becoming a "hodgepodge"? 5%...10%...20%?
I heard it was "hysterical" to worry about immigration when it was 1.5% two decades ago. It's 4% now.
Foreign residents in Japan 2005: 1,555,505
Foreign residents in Japan 2025: 3,956,619
Zaphod
Geeter Mckluskie
...and in Europe the population shift is even more dramatic. In many European capitals, today the natives are a minority. And among the newcomers is a large segment that does not assimilate and instead imposes its own rules.
Population shift is a real thing, and addressing that issue is is not "extreme right wing" as the media likes to label it, but simply talking about facts.
At least the population shift promoters are free to speak about it without being lambasted, see here:
https://x.com/i/status/2017695726642381214
wallace
It is 5% per prefecture.
No is my answer.
There is no need for a cap on immigration. It can be controlled by visa and worker requirements.
virusrex
So, aligned only in their use of imaginary dangers to distract the people from the real cause of the problems.
And it is still without any merit.
The percentage is irrelevant, because that is not a problem that exist now nor it is projected to become one by actual experts. It is just a misleading claim from an extreme right party to instill unjustified fear on people.
Well, obviously it was, the country's problems are not because of foreigners but because bad decisions from the government, this would mean that it is as invalid now as it was two decades ago.
No, it is not, it is just politicians making scapegoats for the problems that exist in Japan.
Geeter Mckluskie
Fair enough. At what percent would it not be "hysterical" for Japanese to be concerned about their culture being diluted...at 10%, one out of every 10 persons, at 20%, one out of every 5 persons? Is it "hysterical" for Japanese to want to preserve their homogeneous culture and society?
virusrex
Again, it is not something that depends on percentages. This is like asking how many thermometers you have to use before declaring someone has fever.
It should be clear when you already confirmed by yourself that it was hysterical to consider 1.5% too much since it is 4% now and the culture "has not been diluted". This imaginary dangers that a political party is trying to use to manipulate people is not something that depends on percentage of foreigners. It can be made the argument that every couple of decades the culture is "diluted" and replaced by something new by the citizens of the country, without any need for any foreigners to do it (and to the deep concern of retrograde people like in sanseito that want desperately for the country to be back to their imperialistic past).
Negative Nancy
Another excuse to get that tangerine colored apparel wearing nobody in the news again. We don't need to see him every single day. Stop giving him the publicity he craves. Give the column inches to people who actually make a difference to this country, because there are a lot better candidates for our attention than that goon.
Geeter Mckluskie
Really? So if the foreign population of Japan were 80% it would have no effect on Japanese culture...none?
Aoi Azuuri
Their insistences have no facts. But, Japanese who are easily deceived by them increase.
Present Japan has practically no regulation about online political advertisement or online hoax, what drastically increased seats of ruling party this time are innumerable social media falsehood that praising PM and discredit opposition parties, not policy or election promise.
Ricky Kaminski13
Yeah mate, you’ll have to excuse me but if I listen to the guy I know and trust who was just over there, and has been going regularly for the past few decades too.
Balony.
Geeter Mckluskie
The purpose this webpage is to elicit traffic from foreigners...Sanseito is a hot topic for traffic. Just take a look at the number of comments for an article on Sanseito, then look at an article on say "How Japan chooses its prime minister"...Your comment will help ensure that Sanseito will be up front and centre on these pages.
virusrex
Not because of the percentage, and maybe not even as strong an effect as a few decades of time, after all it is not dependent on percentage but how this level have been reached. Are you acting as a diluent to Japanese culture? if you do you are then part of the problem, and if you don't why pretend other people have not the same capacity?
Moderator
virusrex and Geeter Mckluskie. You have both been posting non-stop on this story all day and are going around in circles. Japan Today discourages obsessive posting. Please take a break from this story for at least two hours.
wallace
That is the sort of statement you would expect from a Saneito voter and supporter. Running on fear.
Even 10% would be about 12 million.
It will never happen.
Ricky Kaminski13
Exactly, not to mention our opinions and quarrels will have exactly zero effect on the trajectory of the Japanese political landscape too. We are all being played, like a fiddle! Well done JT.
That’s amore!
yakyak
Careful, Japan, you may be slapped down again.
Quo Primum
Unfounded?
Another Japan Today article of today said that the number of reported crimes has increased in Japan for the fourth straight year.
This is during the same time period in which the number of foreigners has basically tripled.
It's not unreasonable to at least wonder whether that's really a coincidence.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know that Japanese people commit crimes too. Most crimes, in fact, since 97% of people in Japan are Japanese.
But when crime increases at the same time that the number of foreign residents greatly increases -- again, it's not crazy to wonder if there's a connection.
And when a foreigner commits a crime -- in any country -- it's in a way WORSE than when a citizen commits one.
That's because the foreigner is committing the ADDED act of taking advantage of the privilege, and abusing the privilege, of being welcome into someone else's country.
Just as a house guest who breaks one of your house rules isn't just guilty of breaking the house rule -- but is also guilty of acting like a rude, unappreciative guest. That makes it worse.
albaleo
It's not clear from the article what he meant by "real immigration" but I'm guessing it might be those with permanent residence. Those in Japan only for a year or two might not be described as immigrants. I've read there are currently about 900,000 foreigners with permanent residence in Japan.
Yotomaya
With all due respect, you and your friend are strangers whom I have no reason to trust enough to change my opinions on policies the government and far-right parties are trying to push that are based on imaginary issues and that directly affect people dear to me and me.
wallace
The foreign population is up. Foreign crime is down.
Based on data from the Japanese Ministry of Justice and National Police Agency, the foreign population in Japan is increasing, while the overall crime rate committed by foreign nationals remains significantly lower than its peak in the mid-2000s.
Criminal offenses committed by foreigners peaked in 2005 at over 43,000 cases. Despite the population growth, the number of crimes is significantly lower than that, with 15,541 cases recorded in 2023.
Quo Primum
So there are three times as many foreigners in Japan now than there were in 2005 ... but the number of crimes committed by foreigners is only slightly higher than one-third of what it was back then?
Sorry, but that seems very difficult to believe.
I'd love to see a link to your source.
And I mean an official source. Not from some activist or group of activists with an agenda.
virusrex
This may be a surprise to you but people do not come here to change the "Japanese political landscape" people come here to discuss, which is exactly what everybody is doing. You may feel played but for most of the people we are doing exactly what we come here to do.
As the previous comment clarifies, this spurious relationship is yet another of the well known misleading factoids far right politicians like to use to misrepresent the situation.
Crime is higher in Japan not because foreigners are doing more crime, but because politicians are making life more difficult for everybody. But to avoid taking responsibility for this the politicians simply search for a scapegoat to blame even if the data contradict this claim.
If anything foreigners would be diluting the rate of crime (not in a significant number of course, being such a tiny minority).
virusrex
Since this is official information from the government this difficulty only betray a personal prejudice. This has been reported several times even in Englsh.
https://www.tokyoreview.net/2026/01/rhetoric-over-reality-the-myth-of-rising-foreign-crime/
The Ministry of Justice’s own crime whitepapers show that while reported crimes ticked up in 2022 and 2023, total figures are still a fraction of earlier decades, and the increase is overwhelmingly driven by petty theft and other minor offences. Arrests of foreigners mirror this same pattern both in type and in scale. It is therefore difficult to claim that foreign crime has increased disproportionately or that foreigners are the main driver of Japan’s modest uptick in reported crime.
Moreover, over 80% of special law offenses are violations of immigration law such as undocumented immigration or overstaying. Taken together, these figures indicate that foreign residents not only commit fewer criminal offenses but are also far less likely to be involved in visa-related violations. The perception of a sweeping public safety threat from foreign residents is thus not supported by the data.
The data comes from the ministry of justice, are you going to say this is some activist group with an agenda?