The Liberal Democratic Party seeks to accelerate Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's drive to strengthen Japan's defense capabilities by scoring a landslide victory in Sunday's general election, hoping to crush those that think the country is going too fast in that direction.
How each party intends to protect Japan from growing threats posed by China and North Korea has been one of the key topics for the election, at a time when the United States is telling other countries to spend more on their own defense.
The recently released U.S. National Defense Strategy document urged allies and partners to increase defense spending to 5 percent of their gross domestic product as it highlighted President Donald Trump's "America First" and "peace through strength" agenda.
Japan under Takaichi, who took office last October, has brought defense-related spending to its target of 2 percent of GDP in fiscal 2025, two years ahead of the previous schedule.
"If the LDP wins the election by a landslide, Prime Minister Takaichi may harden her already hawkish stance on security issues," Nihon University political science professor Masahiro Iwasaki said.
He added that what Takaichi is trying to achieve is clearly different from her predecessors and even more aggressive than the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "proactive" foreign policy.
In explaining why she decided to call the election, Takaichi told a press conference on Jan. 19 she was looking for public mandate and political stability to fearlessly take on bold policies and reforms that could divide the nation.
The LDP's campaign pledges include the first-ever revision to the postwar pacifist Constitution and a strengthening of intelligence operations.
The latest Kyodo News survey showed Monday the LDP could win 233 or more of the 465 seats on its own, securing a majority and far more than the 198 it held before the House of Representatives was dissolved. The newly formed main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance, meanwhile, is expected to perform poorly.
Among signs of the most severe security environment of the postwar era for Japan, China's military has been actively conducting assertive air and sea operations across the Indo-Pacific, while North Korea has repeatedly launched ballistic missiles toward the Sea of Japan, including two short-range missiles on Jan. 27.
"Because the quality and quantity of the weapons systems and militaries are growing, it is expected and understandable for Japan to increase its defense spending," Robert Eldridge, director in charge of North Asia at the Global Risk Mitigation Foundation, said, adding that "Japan has spent so little over the past 70 years."
"Japan increasingly understands it cannot over-rely on the United States, which has the entire globe to look at," the award-winning author and scholar said. "As such, Japan needs to do what it can for its own defense as well as the regional balance."
At present, the United States has more than 50,000 active-duty troops stationed in Japan, the most anywhere in the world outside of the United States, followed by Germany and South Korea, according to U.S. government data.
Last week, Japan and the United States agreed to bolster alliance deterrence and response capabilities when Vice Foreign Minister Takehiro Funakoshi met in Tokyo with Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon's undersecretary for policy, a key figure in U.S. efforts to push allies and partners to raise defense spending.
Prior to his Japan visit, Colby traveled to South Korea, another critical U.S. security ally, and welcomed Seoul's decision made last year to raise its annual defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP.
"There are countries that can reach 5 percent and others that cannot, depending on their fiscal conditions," Nihon University's Iwasaki said. "It would be impossible for Japan to reach 5 percent all at once, so it might end up being around 3.5 percent. But given Japan's current finance situation, even 3.5 percent would not be easy."
If the election results turn out to be as projected by the media, Takaichi will stay in office and likely meet with Trump in March before the U.S. president goes to China in April for a summit with Xi Jinping.
Political analyst Norio Toyoshima said how the LDP wins the election will mean a lot before the Takaichi-Trump meeting.
"Trump wants to make sure he gets what is promised, so he prefers making deals with strong and stable governments," Toyoshima said.
During his first presidency, Trump got along with Abe, Takaichi's mentor, who went on to become Japan's longest-serving prime minister.
Takaichi hopes her upcoming meeting with Trump, as well as Trump's with Xi, will help mend Japan-China ties strained over her remarks in November that suggested Japan could act in the event of an attack on Taiwan.
© KYODO
4 Comments
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Tamarama
Let's be real here, the US is telling other countries to spend more on it's defence because it's very important business for them and makes up a significant part of their economy. In 2024, the Aerospace and Defense industry in the US generated $995 billion in total business activity (sales and supply chain).
In order to sell weapons, it helps if you have bogeymen.
Who are they in this case? North Korea and China.
North Korea? Come on man, let's get real about the Kim regime. All they want to do is keep hold of internal power. Shooting the odd missile at the ocean is, I guess, useful internal propaganda, but that's about it. They are no serious threat to Japan, and moreover, they aren't threatening Japan anyway. An attack on Japan means the end of their regime, and they don't want that.
China? Well China are a global superpower who are building in confidence and assertiveness for sure, but they are a superpower who exists in the age of the American Empire, and are cast largely as a rival due to significant political differences, which makes their world complicated. To simply call China 'bad' is intellectually lazy imo, because the reality is far more nuanced for one, and two to do so is merely swallowing a self serving meta narrative largely driven by the biggest military industrial complex in the world. You have to think critically about the nature of your knowledge, after all.
China is currently ringed by US military installations - not by accident, obviously. From a Chinese perspective, this must be incredibly galling, but instead of threatening the neighbours that host these bases, they have actually historically shown incredible restraint about this.
Yes, there are some historical territorial disputes in the same way that there are in lots of parts of the world, but that's completely different from threatening war with a country.
If Japan wants to build it's defences, fine, go ahead. But as a tax paying resident of Japan, what I really want is for Japan to build really strong regional ties with it's neighbours for a more stable, more unified Asia. Asia is an amazing part of the world, culturally, historically, economically. Asian people should think more about their similarities than their differences and build this region into a global powerhouse, free from the tentacles of Imperial western influence and hegemony.
sakurasuki
Where's the budget come from? Where's the troops come from?
Even with current situation Japan having difficulty in finding recruits for military.
https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/defense/japan-self-defense-forces-miss-recruitment-goal-by-half
OssanAmerica
Japan has not had to face the real fear of conflict nearby and possibly being drawn into a war since 1945. which allowed it to rebuild and put everything into economic growth. But circumstances have changed, for Japan, for Europe. There is hardly a major nation in he world that hasn't been increasing it's defense since 2022.
No real "tax paying resident of Japan" would support China and North Korea. Without being able to effectively defend the country, every other aspect of running the country means nothing.
deanzaZZR
Same as it ever was, Tohoku (and other rural areas). It is commonplace to see recruitment posters out in the boonies. When is the last time you saw one in Tokyo or Osaka?
The only way JSDF will meet recruitment goals is if a non-insignificant portion of the increased defense spending is used to increase salaries and other benefits to join JSDF.